Table 2 Risk scores for 1-year mortality and the probability of a one-year mortality rate by risk category in the in-time cohort and out-of-time validation cohort
ED Risk Scores (In-time cohort) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Risk Factor | Multivariable Adjusted OR (95% CI) | Beta Regression Coefficient | Points | |||
Age | 1.02 (1.01–1.02) | 0.016 | 0.05 / year | |||
qSOFA ≥ 2 | 2.96 (2.54–3.46) | 1.09 | 4 | |||
PSS ≥ 2 | 1.62 (1.45–1.82) | 0.48 | 2 | |||
Had DNR | 1.98 (1.74–2.25) | 0.68 | 2 | |||
Had Cancer | 4.31 (3.85–4.83) | 1.46 | 5 | |||
Probability of Mortality | ||||||
In-time cohort (N = 10,474) | ||||||
Risk Category | Cases n (%) | One-year mortality (95% CI) | ||||
Low (score ≦ 3) | 4165 (39.8%) | 9.3% (8.4 − 10.2%) | ||||
Intermediate (3 < Score ≦ 9) | 4868 (46.5%) | 23.7% (22.5 − 24.9%) | ||||
High (score > 9) | 1441 (13.8%) | 44.3% (41.8 − 46.9%) | ||||
Out-of-time validation cohort (N = 33,182) | ||||||
Risk Category | Cases n (%) | One-year mortality (95% CI) | ||||
Low (score ≦ 3) | 10,077 (3.4%) | 13.6% (12.9-14.2%) | ||||
Intermediate (3 < Score ≦ 9) | 17,752 (53.5%) | 29.9% (29.2-30.5%) | ||||
High (score > 9) | 5,353 (16.1%) | 47.1% (45.8-48.4%) | ||||