Epidemiological exemplar for North Wales: children’s palliative care | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Data type | Comments | Year | ||||||||
2000/1 | 2002/3 | 2003/4 | 2004/5 | 2005/6 | 2006/7 | 2007/8 | 2008/9 | 2009/10 | ||
Population Estimates North Wales 0 -19 years 1 | 162,100 | 162,100 | 162,100 | 162,100 | 161,300 | 160,000 | 159,200 | 158,000 | 156,600 | |
Death certificate analysis 1month – 19 years | Actual deaths per year | Average deaths 25 per year from a life-limiting condition | ||||||||
Death certificate analysis 1month –19 years Place of death | Actual place of death over 5 years | 61% died in North Wales | ||||||||
38% North Wales Hospital | ||||||||||
23% Home | ||||||||||
32% Hospital/Hospice in England2 | ||||||||||
Lowson et al. model 1 month – 19 years | Estimated deaths per year based on meta-analysis epidemiological evidence/deaths. | Mean population 2002/3- 2007/8 | ||||||||
161,113 161,113/10,000 (16.09) x 15 = 242 children/10 = 24 deaths per year | ||||||||||
Prevalence Dictionary/ICD-10-HES Prevalence of children with LLC in annual contact with hospital as in-patient | Minimum demand by children with LLCs for in-patient services | Overall prevalence 25 per 10,000 | 30/10,000 Age 3 | 30/10,000 Age 5 | 22/10,000 Age 7 | Overall prevalence 32 per 10,000 | ||||
162,100/10,000 x25 = 405 children | 156,600/10,000 x 32 = 501 children | |||||||||
Prevalence Dictionary/ICD-10-MCS Prevalence of children with LLC in general population | Maximum number of children who could potentially be affected by a LLC | Overall prevalence of LLC at 3,5 and 7 years 145/10,000 | 156,600/10,000 x 145 2270.7 children | |||||||
1.89% 189/10,000 Age 3 | 1.5% 145/10,000 Age 5 | 1.5% 145/10,000 Age 7 | ||||||||
Parent/child choices interviews | Choice of end-of-life care at home | |||||||||
Professional perspectives Interviews/questionnaire | Community nursing services too stretched to provide choice |