Skip to main content

Table 4 Summary table of death certificate number and place of death, and modelling using the Lowson formula, analysis of ICD-10 and MCS with Dictionary of LLCs, and child/parent and professional care preferences

From: Evidence-based planning and costing palliative care services for children: novel multi-method epidemiological and economic exemplar

Epidemiological exemplar for North Wales: children’s palliative care

Data type

Comments

Year

  

2000/1

2002/3

2003/4

2004/5

2005/6

2006/7

2007/8

2008/9

2009/10

Population Estimates North Wales 0 -19 years 1

 

162,100

162,100

162,100

162,100

161,300

160,000

159,200

158,000

156,600

Death certificate analysis 1month – 19 years

Actual deaths per year

 

Average deaths 25 per year from a life-limiting condition

   

Death certificate analysis 1month –19 years Place of death

Actual place of death over 5 years

 

61% died in North Wales

   

38% North Wales Hospital

23% Home

32% Hospital/Hospice in England2

Lowson et al. model 1 month – 19 years

Estimated deaths per year based on meta-analysis epidemiological evidence/deaths.

 

Mean population 2002/3- 2007/8

  

161,113 161,113/10,000 (16.09) x 15 = 242 children/10 = 24 deaths per year

Prevalence Dictionary/ICD-10-HES Prevalence of children with LLC in annual contact with hospital as in-patient

Minimum demand by children with LLCs for in-patient services

Overall prevalence 25 per 10,000

 

30/10,000 Age 3

 

30/10,000 Age 5

 

22/10,000 Age 7

 

Overall prevalence 32 per 10,000

162,100/10,000 x25 = 405 children

156,600/10,000 x 32 = 501 children

Prevalence Dictionary/ICD-10-MCS Prevalence of children with LLC in general population

Maximum number of children who could potentially be affected by a LLC

  

Overall prevalence of LLC at 3,5 and 7 years 145/10,000

 

156,600/10,000 x 145 2270.7 children

1.89% 189/10,000 Age 3

 

1.5% 145/10,000 Age 5

 

1.5% 145/10,000 Age 7

Parent/child choices interviews

        

Choice of end-of-life care at home

Professional perspectives Interviews/questionnaire

        

Community nursing services too stretched to provide choice

  1. Key 1[29]2. Nearest tertiary children’s hospitals are in England. LLC Life-limiting condition.