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Table 1 Number and proportion of deaths in Scotland by place of death in 2004 and 2016 and projected estimates for 2040

From: The impact of population ageing on end-of-life care in Scotland: projections of place of death and recommendations for future service provision

 

Observed deaths

Projected deaths in 2040

2004

2016

Scenario 1a

Scenario 2b

Scenario 3c

Scenario 4d

 

n

%

n

%

n

%

n

%

n

%

n

%

Home

11136

19.8

13267

23.4

13855

21.1

19331

29.4

19331

29.4

13267

20.2

Care home

8160

14.5

10668

18.8

14776

22.5

19136

29.1

10668

16.2

10668

16.2

Hospital

32603

58.0

28422

50.1

32987

50.2

22556

34.3

31024

47.2

37089

56.4

Hospice

2232

4.0

2444

4.3

2452

3.7

3122

4.7

3122

4.7

3122

4.7

Other

2056

3.7

1927

3.4

1687

2.6

1619

2.5

1619

2.5

1619

2.5

TOTAL

56187

100

56728

100

65757

100

65764

100

65764

100

65765

100

  1. aScenario 1: Age and gender specific proportions of deaths in each care setting are unchanged from those observed in 2016
  2. bScenario 2: Average trend between 2004 and 2016 in place of death in each age and gender group continues
  3. cScenario 3: Average trend between 2004 and 2016 in place of death in each age and gender group continues but care home deaths are capped at 2016 levels
  4. dScenario 4: Average trend between 2004 and 2016 in place of death in each age and gender group continues but care home and home deaths are capped at 2016 levels